In India, the first few weeks of the coronavirus pandemic’s second wave did not have an equivalent rise in mortalities. However, it has changed in the last 4 weeks, from 8th March onwards, COVID-related deaths have risen to the same pace as the upsurge in infections. The seven-day average of daily cases and mortalities are surging by approximately 345% in this period.

Daily deaths (7-day average) have risen from 96 on 8th March to 425 on 4th April, an increase of nearly 4.5 times, exactly reflecting the rise in cases in this period. In the last four weeks (i.e., February 8 to March 8), a 50% rise in average daily cases was observed but there was no increase in death rate.

The death rate remained low as compared with periods of same daily case counts during the first wave. However, the recent spike in death rate has been the sharpest since the start of the pandemic.

2,974 COVID deaths were reported in the last week (March 29-April 4), a record of 59% higher than the previous week count (1,875). Approximately 1,100 more deaths were reported last week as compared to the last seven days, the highest weekly spike in fatalities since the outbreak of coronavirus pandemic in India. The last two weeks had seen mortalities rise by 51% and 41%, respectively, the sharpest increases in percentage.

COVID deaths remained below levels when similar numbers of daily cases were being reported earlier. It could be due to a lag in death toll when infections spike rapidly. COVID deaths should be monitored closely in the coming weeks. 

Source: ET Healthworld